Friday, September 12, 2008

The Chase is on!

The Chase for the Sprint (Not Nextel or Winston) starts this weekend race fans! This week the teams are in New Hampshire at Loudon International Raceway.

The seeds are set like this (From 12 to 1):

12. Matt Kenseth
11. Kevin Harvick
10. Jeff Gordon
9. Greg Biffle
8. Tony Stewart
7. Jeff Burton
6. Denny Hamlin
5. Clint Bowyer
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
3. Jimmie Johnson
2. Carl Edwards
1. Kyle Busch

The seeding is based on the resetting of points with a base of 5,000 and 10 bonus points for each win in the first 2/3's of the season. For example Kyle Busch won 8 times so he has 5,o8o points and from Stewart down to Kenseth, they didn't win at all so they all start with 5,000.

Every one has a chance as 80 points really is not difficult to make up in 10 races.

So here is my preview from 12 to 1 of how I think these guys will finish the chase and why.

12. Matt Kenseth. I just can't see him winning much in the next 10 races. He may get a few top 10's but that won't make him a key player really. He will also not finished 1 or 2 races and that's why he is down this far.

11. Clint Bowyer. This is his second straight chase and as much as I would love to see him improve from last year, I can see Clint pushing the envelope a little this year which could cause some dnf's.

10. Tony Stewart. Tony is a great driver. One of the best in the sport but right now I feel as though he is focused on something else. He will be consistent but will not win at all. Tenth isn't bad Tony, but go get em next year. I think that's already on your mind anyway.

9. Greg Biffle. Nice comeback from last year biff. I just don't see him improving much in the chase from how he has run all season. He might come close to a win or two but nothing that will put him in contention come Homestead.

8. Jeff Burton. This is another guy that all year has really just been consistent and never spectacular. That's not the way to win the chase.

7. Kevin Harvick. I have him jumping so high because I feel as though he is going to win a chase race this year which puts him ahead of the rest of the other guys below him. That's about all that will happen though as every other finish is probably going to be top 15 or so.

6. Jeff Gordon. He also will win once but I can see him getting a DNF late in the chase which bumps him down a few spots late in the season. He will win one of these chases though. Maybe next year Jeff.

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. He really has no momentum right now and that is a much bigger part of this sport then people think. I don't think the chase racetracks set up very well for little E but that's why they go out and race. I really hope he does better then this but I just don't see it this year.

4. Kyle Busch. What a year for this guy, right? 8 wins already, a lot more in the two other series. Why do I have him finishing so low? He will have not one but two bad races coming down the stretch. So why so high? He will win two races coming down the stretch and you can't be that up and down and hope to win the championship.

3. Denny Hamlin. He has three straight 3rd place finishes starting the chase and he really likes some of the chase tracks. He won't win it all this year but look out in a few years down the road. He will be very close and have a chance with 2 races left but just won't have enough to pull it out.

2. Jimmie Johnson. He is threatening to make this another boring chase with how he is running right now. This is exactly how it went last year. He played around with them in the regular season and right before the chase and during the chase he just flat-out dominated. He will be close but fall just short. Homestead will decide it.

And your 2008 Sprint Cup Champion is...

1. Carl Edwards. He will win 2 or 3 of these and the ones he doesn't win will be all top 10 finishes. He has the most top 10's in the series right now and the guy can drive anything on any track. Like I said above, it will come down to the last race and two or three guys will have a chance but I just think Edwards will pull it out and back flip his way to the Championship.

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