Showdown Weekend for College Teams

Now this is a slate of games!!! You have 3 games that feature ranked teams against ranked teams. And you have plenty of games that feature top 10 teams in tough games.

Let's take a look at 4 of them and then I will give you some picks. I will pick 4 additional games in the confidence pool later this week.

6 Penn State at Wisconsin
8:00 Saturday on ESPN

PSU obviously needs this game more than Wisconsin. If Penn State wins they will have 2 more roadblocks to their undefeated season, @ Ohio State and home for Michigan State.

Wisconsin has lost 2 straight games and need to rebound if they hope to play in a top tier bowl game. The offense is struggling mightily and the defense isn't really stopping anyone. Two weeks ago the Badgers were ranked in the top 10, now they aren't even ranked.

Take a look at the numbers:

Penn State is completing 61% of their passes, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and averages 14.2 yards per reception.
Wisconsin's numbers....57%, 4.7 ypc, 13.1 ypr.

And the defensive numbers don't favor Wisc either:

Penn State is allowing a 53.7% completion rate, allowing 2.5 yards per carry, and 10 yards per reception.
Wisconsin.......53.8%, 3.9 ypc, 10.8 ypr.

And no stats don't tell the whole story but you have to look at one number there specifically. The Badgers are giving up almost 4 yards per carry going into a game with 2 good running backs AND a mobile quarterback.

Penn State wins 31-13.


17 Oklahoma State at 3 Missouri
8:00 Saturday on ESPN2

Here is the perfect example of a game where the stats might not matter at all. If you look at Oklahoma State's stats you would be able to say "they have a shot." But if you look at the schedule they have played....you would say "oh, Missouri wins."

Oklahoma State does have a chance......to keep it close. They like to run the ball but there are two problems with that.

1. You can't keep up with Missouri unless you throw the ball. Or unless you can stop the pass.
2. Missouri is only allowing 2.7 yards per carry. It is the best part of their defense.

So can Oklahoma State win? Yes.......if they keep Missouri under 24 points.

Ain't gonna happen.....Missouri wins 41-27.


4 LSU at 11 Florida
8:00 Saturday on CBS

This is the second most important game this weekend as far as the National Championship goes. If Florida wins they are right back in the mix. If LSU wins then they have the upper hand over Alabama and could run the table.

Playing in the Swamp you would have to think would give the Gators the advantage but they did just lose to Mississippi at home.

LSU has only played one road game and that was against a average Auburn team that can't play offense to save their lives. Which means that the LSU quarterbacks are still relatively untested.

And a night game in Gainesville is much different than a noon game in Gainesville.

Gators win 24-20.


5 Texas at 1 Oklahoma
12:00 Saturday on ABC

You should absolutely be in front of your tv at noon on Saturday to watch this game. This game has the potential to be the best college game of the season. Or it might be unwatchable by half time.

Obviously the home/away status doesn't really apply here since the game is played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Looking at the stats says that Oklahoma is a little bit better on defense but Texas is better on offense. But when looking at the level of competition they have played you could make the argument that Texas has played a much easier slate.

And I would agree with that. Looking at the defensive stats of the teams Texas played so far shows that they have played against some of the worst defenses in the country. While Oklahoma took apart a VERY good defense in TCU.

I think Oklahoma keeps rolling and they take Texas down 35-20


Some other picks:

• South Carolina @ Kentucky - A team that likes to pass vs a team that likes to play balanced but can stop the pass. Take the Wildcats over the Gamecocks.
• 13 Vanderbilt @ Miss State - Miss State can stop the pass but not the run.....and Vandy can run the ball but they don't pass much. Easy pick then....take Vandy.
• Arizona State @ 8 USC - I think ASU got caught looking ahead a little bit last week but the loss to Georgia wasn't because of that. USC wins big.
• Tennessee @ 10 Georgia - Tenn doesn't really do anything good on offense, but they are especially inept in the passing game. Which is unfortunate since UGa can't stop the pass. Take the Dawgs over the Vols.
• Purdue @ 12 Ohio State - A potential trap game for the Buckeyes. Coming off a big win @ Wisconsin before hosting Michigan State. It will be close but the Buckeyes will win.
• Nebraska @ 7 Texas Tech - Nebraska showed no life last weekend. And the Red Raiders looked very good. I am still not sold on them but they will handle Nebraska at home.

Recap:

6 PSU over Wisconsin
3 Missouri over 17 Oklahoma State
11 Florida over 4 LSU
1 Oklahoma over 5 Texas

Kentucky over South Carolina
13 Vandy over Miss State
8 USC over Arizona State
10 Georgia over Tennessee
12 Ohio State over Purdue
7 Texas Tech over Nebraska


Last week I went 6-4 in my preview and went another 3-1 in confidence picks. I will pick more big games in the confidence picks this week but I didn't want to keep doubling them up on here. Overall last week I went 9-5 in college picks which makes me 31-13 on the season. That isn't too bad. This week I am going to go 14-0!