Gettin Loose...10/4

Hey race fans, this weekend is race 4 of the chase and its in Talladega. The big one, the one that all the drivers had circled coming into the chase, the real make or break race of the chase. Its go hard or go home time for some of the top guys in the Sprint cup and its going to be good.

Talladega can either make the chase for some guys or break the chase for some guys. A few guys that have already had their chase broken are the Gibbs boys. Hamlin, Stewart and Kyle Busch are 10th, 11th, and 12th respectively in points right now and it seems as though they are pretty much done. I don't really understand what happened. I thought Denny had a good shot at being right up there at this point and with as good as Kyle had been running I really thought he would be right there also. Stewart on the other hand has pretty much lost all interest in racing for Gibbs and you can tell he is already looking forward to next year.

The reason I bring them up is that usually you would consider them among the favorites this week at the 2.66 mile track but I don't really think they are right now. I know its hard to really make anyone a favorite because this track is such a crap shoot but NASCAR is a sport of momentum and none of them have it right now, so I am ruling them out. It kills my fantasy team as you see I have dug myself a huge deficit, however not insurmountable.

Oh, one more thing before I really dig deep into my analysis for this week. Last week, I said I would be gettin loose every Friday, well I think after one week of that I learned my lesson. After writing the post on Friday (before qualifying) I picked Tony Stewart to win. Well fans, I knew I was in trouble later that afternoon when he qualified LAST! I would've changed my pick but I knew you would all understand this week after I explained myself a little bit. I moving the "gettin loose" series to Saturdays and I should have a little bit better luck picking the race.

Lets strap them belts tight and talk some Talladega locks and sleepers. I think the Hendrick boys will all run real well as they usually do at the super speedways. DEI will be strong as well. They showed that in qualifying with 4 out of the top 10 spots. I just have a feeling the Edwards and Biffle will end up right around the front at the end and the RCR guys are good too on the big ones. I need to narrow this down because I pretty much told you that all the drivers could end up doing well.

My sleeper for the week is Kurt Busch. He is great on the big tracks and finished 2nd and 4th at Daytona and was running great until he wrecked at Talladega in the spring.

My lock for the win this week is Dale Earnhardt Jr. He is the master and he has the stuff to put him in position. He will be racing the car he had at the 500 that won the 125 and finished in the top 5 in the race. His only disadvantage is he will be starting at the back because of a blown tire in practice. It won't matter, Jr. wins!

Onto the new top 10!

10. Kyle Busch - I really think that at this point in the season it should only be chase drivers in the top 10 which means one Gibbs guy has to make it. Based on the entire season Busch is the guy here.

9. Clint Bowyer - 12th last week at his home track was good but this late in the season and being in the chase, 12th really isn't good enough.

8. Matt Kenseth - He started the chase badly but has two straight top 5's. On the right track but the first two races might have cost especially with the top 3 running the way they are.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Last week he finished 13th. See Clint Bowyer. I pick him to win this week but that's just a pick, if he goes out and does he will jump some but for now he is down here.

6. Jeff Gordon - Biggest mover this week because he was sick as a dog last week and drove the thing into 4th. That's incredible. He said it was the sickest he had ever been while driving. The guy has been doing this a long time and he isn't out of it yet. Needs a strong finish this week.

5. Jeff Burton - Currently 4th in points and finishes really good every week. Unfortunately, right now, really good isn't good enough. The top 3 are running great, every week so even if he finishes in the top 6 or 7 its not good enough. He is a great driver and 5th right now is really good. See the trend?

4. Kevin Harvick - 9 straight top 10's. That's awesome! He is the fourth best driver in the Sprint cup right now. The unfair part for Harvick is that he is really far from being in the top 3. Its not over by any means but the top 10's need to turn into top 5's the rest of the way for him to have a real shot.

3. Greg Biffle - He is third in points only 30 behind. What's crazy is that in the three chase races he has 2 wins and a third. It's crazy that he isn't winning but he is right there and obviously has a real shot at winning this thing.

2. Carl Edwards - He is really 1A but because he is 10 points behind I put him second. Its really close right now between him and Johnson and this week could really tell a lot about the way the rest of this is going to turn out.

1. Jimmie Johnson - Its crazy that right now he is leading the previous two guys. When the chase comes Johnson puts on his game face and obviously when he does this not many guys can really compete. Its just unbelievable how insanely consistently great this team is during the chase. Again, needs to stay out of the big one this week to keep up the momentum.

There is always a big one at Talladega so keep your fingers crossed that your guy doesn't end up in it. This is one of the key races during the chase and the guys who come out of here with their cars in one piece will be taking a giant leap forward in putting themselves in contention for the championship.

Lets go racing boys!