Thursday, October 16, 2008

College Football Week 8 Preview

I feel like I am not doing anything useful by just picking a few winners. So this week I am starting something new.

I am going to pick 10 games each week (I am open to suggestions for games from readers) and try to pick against the spread.

Now let me explain to you how much experience I have with the spread......none.

I barely even understand it enough to make the picks but I think I have it down so here are the games I will pick. (I got the lines from this site here)

22 Vanderbilt @ 10 Georgia (-14.5)
16 Kansas @ 4 Oklahoma (-20)
12 Ohio State (-3.5) @ 20 Michigan State
11 Missouri @ 1 Texas (-6)
17 Virgina Tech @ Boston College (-3)
Baylor @ 8 Oklahoma State (-17)
Mississippi @ 2 Alabama (-13)
Georgia Tech (-2.5) @ Clemson
Wisconsin @ Iowa (-3.5)
Miami (-3.5) @ Duke

Now lets pick em!

Vandy/UGa - While I don't see Vandy winning this game outright I really don't see the Bulldogs winning by 2 touchdowns. Every game Vandy has played has been close and Georgia can't put teams away. Plus you add in that Georgia gets LSU next week and you can see how this game should be close.
the pick~~~Vandy (+14.5)

KU/OU - Some people have said that OU will run wild on KU and just embarrass them. That KU isn't in the same class as OU and they can't compete. These are probably the 2 best pass defenses in the Big 12 which isn't really saying anything considering what OU allowed Texas to do last week. I think 20 is too many points though so I will take another underdog.
the pick~~~Kansas (+20)

OSU/MSU - I believe I have heard somewhere that being a home game gets you 3 points which means the odds makers really like OSU by almost a touchdown on a neutral field. This is tough to pick since Sparty hasn't really been tested yet. I am really not a Terrelle Pryor believer just yet and if he is taking all the snaps I don't like the Buckeyes. This is a big game for Sparty and OSU has to worry about PSU next week.
the pick~~~MSU (+3.5)

Missou/UT - The Big 12 is tough. But Missouri actually has a very manageable schedule after this game. While Texas gets Okie State and Texas Tech the next two weeks. So UT needs this game more than Missouri. Texas is coming off of a HUGE emotional win against OU while Missou is down after a tough loss to Okie State. So.....
the pick~~~Missouri (+6)

VT/BC - This game is very even. In fact BC is a 3 point favorite which is the result of them being at home so it is truly even. VT scares me though. Their offense just seems to be horrible and their defense isn't great but they still win games. And they have proven themselves where as BC hasn't really played anyone yet. But I have to take a favorite at some point...right? Maybe not.
the pick~~~Va Tech (+3)

BU/Okie St - Let's look at Okie State. They just upset a very good Missouri team, good for them. Next week they go to Austin to play the Longhorns. Seems like the perfect trap game to me. These two teams are probably the most balanced in the conference on offense. I do like Okie St to win this game. But it won't be easy.
the pick~~~Baylor (+17)

Miss/Bama - Alabama is coming off of a bye week and they have Nick Saban at head coach. So they should win easily right? I don't know. Obviously Vegas is a little concerned too since they are only 13 point favorites (considering OU plays a ranked KU team and is a 20 point favorite). It isn't really a trap game but Bama does get Tennessee next week which in name is a good team. Is Mississippi for real after beating Florida? I am not convinced.
the pick~~~Alabama (-13)

GT/Clem - Clemson has a new coach this week. Will the team rally behind him? I think firing a coach basically makes all their stats and past games useless until the team shows how they are going to play. The staff still intends to play Willie Korn at QB which was a big problem with most of the team and Coach Bowden. Clemson needs this game badly though.
the pick~~~Georgia Tech (-2.5)

Wisc/Iowa - Wiscy has lost 3 straight games including 2 at home. And now they go to play an Iowa team that got a big win last week against Indiana. Iowa has lost 3 games by a total of 9 points against 3 good teams in Pitt, Northwestern, and MSU. Wiscy got blown out of the water last week after playing OSU tough the week before. The road may be the best place for Wiscy right now.
the pick~~~Iowa (-3.5)

Miami/Duke - Neither of these teams seem to do anything well at all. Miami's run defense is the only thing that seems to be a positive for either team. This game is at Duke which should give the Devils hope. And they had a bye week to get over their 27-0 loss to GT. But I am not sure Duke has the athletes to use it to their advantage.
the pick~~~Miami (-3.5)


There you go. Call your bookie. I will be back next Thursday to see how I did and to pick more games.

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