Saturday, January 17, 2009

Verb's Playoff Pick 6

It's Championship Sunday in the NFL so that means this week is a pick 6 minus 2. Since there are only 2 games, there are only 2 point spreads and 2 over/unders. I know, I am disappointed too. I have gone 6-2 the past two weeks and well with only 4 options to win I can't match my win total from either week.

The GM gave you some expert analysis earlier on in the week. He made some good picks and gave you a few keys to the games. I am here to tell you where you should put your money and what I think the keys to the two championship games are.

In one game you have the Eagles and Cardinals. I am not sure the Cardinals have ever hosted a conference championship game in the history of their franchise but in this game some kind of bird has to win. I will tell you which one in a little bit.

The other matchup features the two best defenses in the NFL. It's going to be a hit you in the mouth kind of slugfest. The Steelers have beaten the Ravens twice already and the third time is always the hardest. Can they do it?

Let's get to it!

Philadelphia @ Arizona

The Point Spread: The Eagles are favored by 3.5

The Over/Under: 47

The Analysis: It's curious to me that the Eagles are on the road in a conference championship and they are the favorite here. I think a lot of people are underestimating the Cardinals just like they have done all playoffs. I am sure those guys are sick of hearing about how they can't do it and they shouldn't be here. Larry Fitzgerald has played like an animal in the playoffs so far and even though the Eagles are built to stop a team like Arizona. Expect another big game from Fitz.

The Eagles have 3 all-pro corners, all of which can play solid man to man defense. The key matchup in my mind will be Steve Breaston and Lito Sheppard. The Eagles are going to blitz Warner all day from everywhere and since the loss of Spach, Breaston will probably be Warner most likely bail out target. Anquan Boldin is said to be healthy, which is a big boost for this offense. I don't expect Arizona will be able to run the ball very well so it's going to be on Warner.

On the other side of the ball, I expect McNabb to have a bid day. Arizona was near the bottom of the league in touchdown passes allowed and I think McNabb is hot enough right now to exploit that. Westbrook will have a good game too but might be more effective this week in the passing game then in the running game. Either way this is going to one heck of a game because the Cardinals are at home and I am sure they are sick of hearing about how they don't belong and can't win.

The Pick: The Eagles win this one 27-23. Therefore I say take the Eagles on the road and the over.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

The Point Spread: The Steelers are favored by 6.

The Over/Under: 34

The Analysis: The two best defenses square off for the third time this year. If you remember the last time these two teams played it took a questionable touchdown call at the end of the 4th quarter for the Steelers to win. I still say it was a touchdown but it was really close.

Joe Flacco is going to have to stay poised just like he has for the entire playoffs. Playing in Pittsburgh on championship Sunday is going to be a whole different animal but if they youngster can handle it, this game will be great! The Ravens offensive line is going to have to be huge and give Flacco time because if the Steelers defense has a weakness, its the secondary. I don't believe the Ravens will have any success trying to run on Pittsburgh but they are going to have to keep trying if they want a chance to win. Balance will be the key even if the running game doesn't work.

The same goes for the Steelers line. Samari Rolle is out and Terrell Suggs is a game-time decision so that helps the Steelers some but the Ravens still have Ngata, Lewis and Reed. If the line gives Ben time, Holmes and Ward will get open. Willie Parker could have a good game because I think its the speed backs that do better against the Ravens. Chris Johnson proved that last week until he got hurt.

11 out of 18 times when teams have a played three times and one team won the first two, that team has won the third.

As Mike Tomlin said earlier this week, "This would be a huge game if it was a scrimmage."

Man, this is going to be one for the ages!

The Pick: Pittsburgh wins 13-9. Therefore take the Ravens and the under.

I don't really think there is much else I need to say. It's the conference championships!

Enjoy!

Boo Ya!

1 comment:

GM said...

Since 1990 the teams that are 2-0 against an opponent are 8-4 in the third game.

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