History Tells Us Who Won't Win

I did a little research this week about the history of the NFL Playoffs. If I knew a couple weeks ago what I knew now I would not have picked both the Ravens and Eagles to make the Super Bowl. Hell I wouldn't have picked either of them to even make it.

I knew that there had been only one 6 seed to win the Super Bowl (05 Steelers) and I knew that Wild Card teams struggle to get to the Super Bowl. But I didn't know how many times the top seeds got in and how few times the Wild Card teams did.

Since 1990 (the inception of the current playoff system) there have been 18 playoffs. Of all 18 times there has been a #1 seed (from either conference) in the Super Bowl in ALL but 2 games. Those 2 games were the 1992-93 Super Bowl (Buffalo vs Dallas) and the 1997-98 Super Bowl (Denver vs Green Bay). In EVERY other year AT least 1 of the top seeds made the Super Bowl.

BUT both #1 seeds have only made it twice, the 1991-92 Buffalo vs Washington and then two years later in 1993-94 Buffalo vs Dallas. So the odds of a Giants vs Titans Super Bowl are very minimal.

So which team is more likely to make it....based on history of course?

The Giants.

Why? Because the #1 seed in the NFC has played in the NFC Championship game in every year EXCEPT last season when Dallas lost. And overall 11 of the 18 Super Bowls since 1990 have featured the #1 seed in the NFC.

Where as in the AFC the #1 seed has only made 11 of the AFC Championship games and only 7 Super Bowls. So based on history the Titans have longer odds of getting past Baltimore let alone getting to Tampa.

And what about my picks of Baltimore and Philly to make the Super Bowl? Out of 96 wild card teams since 1990 only 9 teams (92 Bills, 95 Colts, 96 Jaguars, 97 Broncos, 99 Titans, 00 Ravens, 05 Steelers, 05 Panthers, and 07 Giants) have even made the Championship game.

And of those only 6 made the Super Bowl (Bills, Broncos, Titans, Ravens, Steelers, and Giants). and 4 won it all (Broncos, Ravens, Steelers, and Giants).

To make matters worse there has only been 1 year where 2 Wild Card teams even made the Championship games (2005-06).

So basically what I am saying is don't bet on the Eagles or Ravens to win the Super Bowl. But definitely don't bet on BOTH teams to GET to the Super Bowl.