What Position To Use a Top 10 Pick On:

Here at Jumping Offsides we are obviously bigger football fans than of any other sport. Sure Verb is a bigger Duke basketball fan than he is 49er fan BUT if you ask him what sport he would rather watch and talk about it would be football.

So even though the season is over, football will not cease to exist on this site. And since I obviously think I am an expert on this stuff (why else would I write a blog) I am going to give me ideas of what teams should do.

Which obviously leads us to the draft.....

The Lions as you all know are on the clock. And there are multiple mock drafts out there right now. They have it narrowed down to QB Matthew Stafford or OL Andre Smith.

But this is not a scouting report on these players and which one they should take. There are plenty of them out there and I will surely give my opinion at some point but not right now.

No, right now I am going to look back and see what positions are the safest when selecting in the Top 10.

Why? Cause the Lions, and other teams at the top of the draft, need to fill NUMEROUS holes and finding players that can actually play is more important than risking it on a high risk high reward kind of player (like Stafford).

(honestly I think the Lions should trade this pick. even if they only get a mid 1st and a 3rd or something I think they would be fine. but that never happens so we will assume they are going to pick a player)

I have looked back at the Top 10 picks in each NFL draft for the past 15 years. I then decided which players were busts or stars based on my impressions and their statistics and importance. Of course some players got hurt and didn't pan out but that is still a bust in my opinion. Players drafted in the past 3 years haven't really had a chance to become busts or stars yet so they get their own category. And with no further ado.....

Quarterbacks:

There have been 21 quarterbacks taken in the Top 10 since 1994.

• Busts (8): Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith
• Stars (5): Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers
• Solid (4): Trent Dilfer, Kerry Collins, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer
• Too Early (4): Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jamarcus Russell, Matt Ryan

This really didn't surprise me. This position is so hard to peg down I don't understand why you would risk your franchise on it. Sure a Peyton Manning might work out but a Couch could ruin one too and they are more likely. But basically only 5 of the 21 or about 25% were really worth their draft position.

Running Backs:

There have been 17 running backs taken.

• Busts (7): Ki-Jana Carter, Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Curtis Enis, Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson
• Stars (5): Marshall Faulk, Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, Ladainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson
• Solid (3): Jamal Lewis, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams
• Too Early (2): Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden

I think Peterson has proven that if he stays healthy he is a difference maker. Bush is still an unknown but surely isn't a star like the others have been and McFadden is undecided yet. All in all you have only 5 of 17 that are worth their draft position. Not terrible since I would be okay with the 3 solid players but considering what you can get later it is hard to take one this early.

Wide Receivers:

23 receivers have been taken in the Top 10.

• Busts (12): Michael Westbrook, JJ Stokes, David Boston, Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Charles Rogers, Reggie Williams, Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams
• Stars (4): Keyshawn Johnson, Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald
• Solid (5): Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Ike Hilliard, Plaxico Burress, Roy Williams
• Too Early (2): Calvin Johnson, Ten Ginn Jr.

We would probably all agree that Calvin is probably a star in the making but we can't put him there yet. I almost put Glenn and Hilliard in the bust category but they have been good at times. Amazingly over half of the WRs taken have been busts. How can you conceivably take one in the top 10 with those odds. You only have a 17% chance to draft a star WR in the top 10 and a star receiver might not do that much for you anyways.

Offensive Line:

There have been 18 offensive lineman drafted in the Top 10.

• Busts (2): Kyle Turley, Mike Williams
• Stars (5): Tony Boselli, Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, Leonard Davis
• Solid (7): Willie Anderson, Chris Naeole, Chris Samuels, Bryant McKinnie, Levi Jones, Jordan Gross, Robert Gallery
• Too Early (4): D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, Jake Long

I think it is safe to say that Thomas and Long are AT LEAST solid but are probably going to be stars. This position is so far the safest position to draft in the top 10 as there were only 2 busts in the last 15 years. And Turley was okay. I am sure many of you feel that Gallery is a bust but he is still starting all his games at guard so while he didn't make it as a tackle I think he is a solid lineman. Do you get a high reward....not necessarily. BUT you don't have high risk with this pick either.

Defensive Lineman:

The most popular position taken in the Top 10 with 33 selections.

• Bust (10): Mike Mamula, Cedric Jones, Darrell Russell, Andre Wadsworth, Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, Jamal Reynolds, Ryan Sims, DeWayne Robertson, Jonathon Sullivan
• Stars (7): Bryant Young, Kevin Carter, Simeon Rice, Richard Seymour, Julius Peppers, John Henderson, Kevin Williams
• Solid (7): Dan Wilkinson, Sam Adams, Grant Wistrom, Greg Ellis, Chris Simon, Justin Smith, Andre Carter
• Too Early (9): Mario Williams, Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, Amobi Okoye, Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Sedrick Ellis, Derrick Harvey

With 33 choices you are bound to get some really good players and some busts. But almost 1/3 of the picks were busts which isn't a good percentage. But there were lots of stars too. This is your classic high risk high reward position. I was surprised at how many teams take DL in the top 10 considering the risk. But it is a crucial position and some teams are willing to take the risk.

Linebackers:

The lowest totals of any position on this list with only 14 Top 10 selections.

• Busts (3): Trev Alberts, Jamir Miller, LaVar Arrington
• Stars (5): Willie McGinest, Peter Boulware, James Farrior, Brian Urlacher, Terrell Suggs
• Solid (2): Kevin Hardy, Chris Claiborne
• Too Early (4): AJ Hawk, Ernie Sims, Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo

You actually have a better chance of selecting a stud than a bust here. The only player on this list that is a complete bust was Alberts. Arrington is a bust considering his expectations and Miller was okay for a couple years. So why are so few taken early in the draft? It seems that if you have a 33% chance to get a steady player you should take it more often.

Defensive Backs:

There have been 20 defensive backs taken with Top 10 selections.

• Busts (4): Antonio Langham, Bryant Westbrook, Tom Knight, Duane Starks
• Stars (3): Charles Woodson, Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister
• Solid (10): Shaun Springs, Quentin Jammer, Roy Williams, Terence Newman, Sean Taylor, DeAngelo Hall, Dunta Robinson, Pacman Jones, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers
• Too early (3): Michael Huff, Donte Whitner, LaRon Landry

This position is probably the toughest to grade because interceptions and tackles don't necessarily tell you how good a player has been. A good cover corner never gets thrown at so his stats are lower. Either way there were not too many busts here and none since the 98 draft but not too many stars either. Sure you could argue that Newman, Williams, Robinson, Rogers, and Rolle are on their way and that Taylor would have been but they aren't at this time. But overall the position is pretty safe considering everything. Only 4 busts in 15 years is pretty good but you don't necessarily get the "star" player either.

..................

So there you have it. The safest positions to draft in the top 10 are offensive linemen, linebacker, and defensive back. While wide receiver, running back, and quarterback are probably the worst. Defensive line is a toss up right now because so many are undecided yet.

Sure quarterbacks are important but wouldn't you be better off drafting a guy in the second or third round and letting him learn (and save money) instead of risking your franchise on a high risk player. And running back and wide receiver are so deep and so many good players are found late in the draft why would you risk one in the top 10?

So if I am the Lions or any of the other teams in the top 10 I would be taking a longer look at the offensive lineman, linebackers, and defensive backs on the board.