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Man I love this day. We are only 2 hrs from tip off in the NCAA Tournament and I can barely focus.
Unfortunately I am at work today (off tomorrow though!!) and am trying to keep busy this morning or else I will just drive myself nuts.
These next 4 days are 4 of the best sports days of the year. Sure the Final Four is great but I don't care as much by that time. This weekend is all about teams like Siena or Utah State. Teams with big dreams like North Dakota State and teams that just want to keep it competitive like Morehead State.
The Duke's UConn's just want to get through the weekend without too much problem. They want to get to next Thursday or Friday where they finally get excited. That is part of the problem for the big schools, they know they should win these early games so they don't play as hard.
Then you have the Utah's of the world. The smaller schools that earned their trip easily but are the favorite to lose amongst the top 5 seeds.
Guys like Dominic James of Marquette can only sit and watch as one time Final Four thoughts have faded to just getting through to the Sweet Sixteen.
There are so many story lines that haven't been talked about and exciting moments coming these next 4 days that it is easy to get excited for all the games.
Today and tomorrow are especially great cause the traditional seed matchups are all taking place. I mean who isn't really excited about the 5/12 and 6/11 matchups. And what happens if a 16 keeps it close or a 15 takes it down to the wire? Pure hysteria.
And that is what makes these next 2, then 2 more, days so great.
Now we are only 1 hour 50 minutes from it all beginning!
Showing posts with label Bubble Teams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bubble Teams. Show all posts
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
How to Make the NCAA Tournament Better
Right after the brackets are announced and for the following 24 hours you will always hear about what teams should have gotten in and what teams shouldn't have. It is part of what makes the NCAA Tournament so great.
But is it necessary?
I have 2 completely separate methods that will fix much of the problem and still make it a great tournament every year.
*note - I know option 2 has been mentioned elsewhere but I mention it again here*
Option #1: Have a RPI cutoff for conference Champions
I like having the conference champions get automatic bids but do you really care about teams like Morehead State or Alabama State? No you don't and neither do I.
So allow all the conference champions an automatic bid IF their RPI is in the top 120. The teams outside the top 120 would then go to the NIT instead. They still get postseason basketball and they might actually win a game (although not likely).
This would eliminate 6 automatic bids this season. Radford (131), Cal State Northridge (127), Morgan State (130), Morehead State (142), Chattanooga (174), and Alabama State (179) would all be left out of the NCAA Tournament and instead would be in the NIT.
Then you take the other low seeds and just make them 16s and 15s to replace those teams. You would also eliminate the DUMBEST THING IN SPORTS....the play in game. There would be no reason for it.
By eliminating the play in game (and making the field 64 instead of 65) and the low ranked conference champions you could have included 5 more teams. Maybe St. Mary's, Creighton, Penn State, San Diego State, and Auburn.
Now wouldn't you rather see a tournament with those teams as the 13 and 14 seeds instead of the Morehead State's of the world??
Admit it....you would.
Option #2: Make the Bubble Teams the Play In teams
Right now you have a ridiculous play in game that is supposedly part of the tournament. Well let's expand on that a bit.
Instead of making two teams that WON THEIR CONFERENCES and received automatic bids to the tourney let's make 4 of these play in games and have games between the Bubble Teams to see who gets in.
You leave the 12 or 11 seeds open on selection Sunday and you play 4 games on Tuesday (or Monday) between the last 8 teams considered. This season it would probably look something like this:
Wisconsin vs San Diego State
Minnesota vs Penn State
Maryland vs St. Mary's
Arizona vs Creighton
Play the games in Dayton or at another neutral site and the winners get into the field! This way the bubble teams get one last chance to prove who is worthy and it takes the guess work out of the hands of the selection committee.
There are always going to be complaints from teams just outside the tourney. Even if you use option 1 or 2 on here you are going to find teams like Auburn or South Carolina or New Mexico that will think they deserved the chance more.
But using those options would make the tournament more exciting AND in my opinion more complete!
What do you think about these options? Would you want to see either actually happen?
If you liked this then check these out:
Verb Thinks the Tourney Should Stay the Same
Why Thursday of Championship Week is Overrated
The Big East Tourney Should NOT Invite all 16 Teams
But is it necessary?
I have 2 completely separate methods that will fix much of the problem and still make it a great tournament every year.
*note - I know option 2 has been mentioned elsewhere but I mention it again here*
Option #1: Have a RPI cutoff for conference Champions
I like having the conference champions get automatic bids but do you really care about teams like Morehead State or Alabama State? No you don't and neither do I.
So allow all the conference champions an automatic bid IF their RPI is in the top 120. The teams outside the top 120 would then go to the NIT instead. They still get postseason basketball and they might actually win a game (although not likely).
This would eliminate 6 automatic bids this season. Radford (131), Cal State Northridge (127), Morgan State (130), Morehead State (142), Chattanooga (174), and Alabama State (179) would all be left out of the NCAA Tournament and instead would be in the NIT.
Then you take the other low seeds and just make them 16s and 15s to replace those teams. You would also eliminate the DUMBEST THING IN SPORTS....the play in game. There would be no reason for it.
By eliminating the play in game (and making the field 64 instead of 65) and the low ranked conference champions you could have included 5 more teams. Maybe St. Mary's, Creighton, Penn State, San Diego State, and Auburn.
Now wouldn't you rather see a tournament with those teams as the 13 and 14 seeds instead of the Morehead State's of the world??
Admit it....you would.
Option #2: Make the Bubble Teams the Play In teams
Right now you have a ridiculous play in game that is supposedly part of the tournament. Well let's expand on that a bit.
Instead of making two teams that WON THEIR CONFERENCES and received automatic bids to the tourney let's make 4 of these play in games and have games between the Bubble Teams to see who gets in.
You leave the 12 or 11 seeds open on selection Sunday and you play 4 games on Tuesday (or Monday) between the last 8 teams considered. This season it would probably look something like this:
Wisconsin vs San Diego State
Minnesota vs Penn State
Maryland vs St. Mary's
Arizona vs Creighton
Play the games in Dayton or at another neutral site and the winners get into the field! This way the bubble teams get one last chance to prove who is worthy and it takes the guess work out of the hands of the selection committee.
There are always going to be complaints from teams just outside the tourney. Even if you use option 1 or 2 on here you are going to find teams like Auburn or South Carolina or New Mexico that will think they deserved the chance more.
But using those options would make the tournament more exciting AND in my opinion more complete!
What do you think about these options? Would you want to see either actually happen?
If you liked this then check these out:
Verb Thinks the Tourney Should Stay the Same
Why Thursday of Championship Week is Overrated
The Big East Tourney Should NOT Invite all 16 Teams
Sunday, March 15, 2009
My 65 Teams that are in the Tournament
The GM gave you his 65 earlier today. I was fortunate enough to be able to watch Duke, Stephen F. Austin and Mississippi State win their respective conference tournaments before I was able to post mine. As of right now there is only one more automatic bid to give out. The Big Ten bid. That goes to either Purdue or Ohio State and I don't need to wait for that to end because I have both of those teams in anyway. The only thing that may change is their seeds and well I am in the same boat as the GM and I don't feel like torturing myself trying to figure out who is going to play who.
My list may be a little different then the GM's but to be honest I haven't really looked at his list only because I don't want to cheat. I want my own list and if it ends up being the same as his well then we must think a like.
Fans, the GM is a very organized, look at all the numbers and statistics kind of guy and I am more of an eye test, who is the better looking team kind of guy and that may be where most of the differences are. I think the GM and I would both agree on the fact that there are really only a few spots left anymore. I am ready to give you my last 4 in and my first 4 out. Since Mississippi State won that's all I really feel is debatable but those 4 spots are really up for grabs. There is potential for me getting all 4 wrong.
Let's get after it!
As the GM said, the 31 conference champions are on the right side bar. Obviously they are in and that also means I have half the field filled already. Boo Ya!
Now I have to give you my locks for being in. I am just going to look at each conference and list the teams that I would consider locks.
Xavier
Dayton
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Clemson
Boston College
Florida State
Oklahoma
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
Villanova
Syracuse
Marquette
West Virginia
Michigan State
Illinois
Ohio State/Purdue
Butler
BYU
Washington
UCLA
Arizona State
California
Tennessee
LSU
That's a total of 29 teams that I feel are locked in that didn't win their conference tournaments. These teams aren't sweating right now they are just waiting for their seed, location and opponent.
It's time to do some math. 31 conference champs + 29 locks = 60 teams in.
All that means is that I'm fairly confident I'm going to get that many right. After that who the hell knows. Only the committee that is sitting in that room in Indianapolis right now. That's who.
Now I am going to give you my bubble teams in the order that I am putting them in. This way, I can highlight my last four in and last four out just as the GM did earlier today.
61. Wisconsin
62. Maryland
63. Minnesota
64. Creighton
65. San Diego State
66. Saint Mary's
67. Florida
68. Arizona
69. South Carolina
70. Penn State
71. Auburn
72. New Mexico
73. Michigan
Those teams are kind of close but at the same time not really. They could've played their way in but it was a long shot going in. None of them really did anything to make a case for the dance. The NIT is going to be darn good this year!
There ya have it, I am not sure I'm going to go 65 for 65 but I hope I'm close. We will never know if I have my last 8 out ranked correctly but if they don't make it, it doesn't matter.
This tournament is going to be AWESOME BABY! Listen to the podcast to get the GM and I's analysis.
My list may be a little different then the GM's but to be honest I haven't really looked at his list only because I don't want to cheat. I want my own list and if it ends up being the same as his well then we must think a like.
Fans, the GM is a very organized, look at all the numbers and statistics kind of guy and I am more of an eye test, who is the better looking team kind of guy and that may be where most of the differences are. I think the GM and I would both agree on the fact that there are really only a few spots left anymore. I am ready to give you my last 4 in and my first 4 out. Since Mississippi State won that's all I really feel is debatable but those 4 spots are really up for grabs. There is potential for me getting all 4 wrong.
Let's get after it!
As the GM said, the 31 conference champions are on the right side bar. Obviously they are in and that also means I have half the field filled already. Boo Ya!
Now I have to give you my locks for being in. I am just going to look at each conference and list the teams that I would consider locks.
Xavier
Dayton
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Clemson
Boston College
Florida State
Oklahoma
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
Villanova
Syracuse
Marquette
West Virginia
Michigan State
Illinois
Ohio State/Purdue
Butler
BYU
Washington
UCLA
Arizona State
California
Tennessee
LSU
That's a total of 29 teams that I feel are locked in that didn't win their conference tournaments. These teams aren't sweating right now they are just waiting for their seed, location and opponent.
It's time to do some math. 31 conference champs + 29 locks = 60 teams in.
All that means is that I'm fairly confident I'm going to get that many right. After that who the hell knows. Only the committee that is sitting in that room in Indianapolis right now. That's who.
Now I am going to give you my bubble teams in the order that I am putting them in. This way, I can highlight my last four in and last four out just as the GM did earlier today.
61. Wisconsin
62. Maryland
63. Minnesota
64. Creighton
65. San Diego State
66. Saint Mary's
67. Florida
68. Arizona
69. South Carolina
70. Penn State
71. Auburn
72. New Mexico
73. Michigan
Those teams are kind of close but at the same time not really. They could've played their way in but it was a long shot going in. None of them really did anything to make a case for the dance. The NIT is going to be darn good this year!
There ya have it, I am not sure I'm going to go 65 for 65 but I hope I'm close. We will never know if I have my last 8 out ranked correctly but if they don't make it, it doesn't matter.
This tournament is going to be AWESOME BABY! Listen to the podcast to get the GM and I's analysis.
65 Teams for Men's NCAA Tournament
For the past couple weeks Verb and I have been giving our 65 teams each week on the podcast. But today we are waiting until after the brackets are announced to do the podcast. So I wanted to let you all know who I think the 65 teams are gonna be.
I am not going to try and seed the teams as I think that is a unenviable task and way too much work. But here are my 65:
31 Conference Champions:
You can see 27 of these on the left side of the screen plus you can add Purdue, Duke, Tennessee, and Stephen F. Austin to the list. That is who I expect to win but since I have a prior engagement to attend early this afternoon I must get this list up before those games are over.
34 At Large Teams:
These are in no particular order until you get to the end....
North Carolina
Florida State
Boston College
Clemson
Wake Forest
Connecticut
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Syracuse
Marquette
West Virginia
Michigan State
Illinois
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Texas
Kansas
Arizona State
Washington
UCLA
LSU
BYU
Xavier
Dayton
Butler
now my last 9 (last 4 in are bold):
Oklahoma State
Michigan
Wisconsin
Arizona
California
Minnesota
Maryland
Texas A&M
San Diego State
And here are my first 4 out:
St. Mary's
Creighton
Penn State
UNLV
Oh...and if Mississippi State beats Tennessee than San Diego State is out and A&M is my last team in.
So there you go. Now you only have to watch the selection show to see where the teams are seeded cause I am confident that I got all 65 correct!!
Friday, March 13, 2009
Why Thursday is the Worst Day of Championship Week
I just heard one of the talking heads on ESPN say, "today is Thursday of championship week, which is probably the best day of the week." I 100% disagree with this statement. I don't think there is one best day of this week to be honest. I love championship week.
Here are my reasons why Thursday isn't the best day:
1. I think he said it because its the day the big conference tournaments start and ESPN makes their money off the big conferences. I mean there were some games yesterday but the real ones were today. There were some huge upsets and some routine wins. ESPN has to say its the best day of the week because like I said, they make their money off the BCS conferences.
2. An example of an upset that happened today was Baylor beating Kansas. In my opinion this did nothing for the NCAA tournament. And that is why we have the conference tournaments right? I don't think this loss really hurts Kansas much. They will still be a number 3 or 4 seed and that's where I had them before this loss. Even though Baylor fans would like to think differently, their team isn't going to the big dance unless they win the whole thing. My point is this, when the top teams lose they don't really get hurt in my opinion and when these "below the bubble" teams win a game or two or hell for that matter the whole thing, why should they even be considered now? They only made it because they got a second chance because the conference wanted to make some extra money and they knocked out a team that had a much better season as a whole. It doesn't make sense to me.
3. For all these teams that are already in, its just more games before the big dance. I think these teams would love to win the conference tournament but even if they don't, like Marquette for example, they still will make the tournament and that's all that really matters. These tournaments are just another way for these conferences to make money. Didn't they make enough when all but 2 of their teams played in bowl games in the fall.
4. I am a Duke fan so I am going to use Duke and North Carolina as an example here. Let's say these two teams make it to the championship game. Somehow Duke figures it out and beats North Carolina. The questions will automatically be raised about Duke becoming a number 1 seed and Carolina falling to a number 2. Really? Carolina has been the better team all season and beat them twice in the regular season. My point here is that these tournaments just cause confusion.
We need to have the low major tournaments because they decide who makes it to the big dance. I don't know what the percentage is of number 1 seeds that win but I'm sure its pretty high. I would have no problem if the regular season champ automatically went and not the tournament champion but the small conferences usually reward the regular season winner with home court advantage during the tournament.
I think the big dance is awesome and shouldn't be changed. I repeat, there should be no changes to the NCAA tournament but championship week and the conference tournaments could be altered. I love the games. This week has been awesome! I'm just not sure its necessary.
Here are my reasons why Thursday isn't the best day:
1. I think he said it because its the day the big conference tournaments start and ESPN makes their money off the big conferences. I mean there were some games yesterday but the real ones were today. There were some huge upsets and some routine wins. ESPN has to say its the best day of the week because like I said, they make their money off the BCS conferences.
2. An example of an upset that happened today was Baylor beating Kansas. In my opinion this did nothing for the NCAA tournament. And that is why we have the conference tournaments right? I don't think this loss really hurts Kansas much. They will still be a number 3 or 4 seed and that's where I had them before this loss. Even though Baylor fans would like to think differently, their team isn't going to the big dance unless they win the whole thing. My point is this, when the top teams lose they don't really get hurt in my opinion and when these "below the bubble" teams win a game or two or hell for that matter the whole thing, why should they even be considered now? They only made it because they got a second chance because the conference wanted to make some extra money and they knocked out a team that had a much better season as a whole. It doesn't make sense to me.
3. For all these teams that are already in, its just more games before the big dance. I think these teams would love to win the conference tournament but even if they don't, like Marquette for example, they still will make the tournament and that's all that really matters. These tournaments are just another way for these conferences to make money. Didn't they make enough when all but 2 of their teams played in bowl games in the fall.
4. I am a Duke fan so I am going to use Duke and North Carolina as an example here. Let's say these two teams make it to the championship game. Somehow Duke figures it out and beats North Carolina. The questions will automatically be raised about Duke becoming a number 1 seed and Carolina falling to a number 2. Really? Carolina has been the better team all season and beat them twice in the regular season. My point here is that these tournaments just cause confusion.
We need to have the low major tournaments because they decide who makes it to the big dance. I don't know what the percentage is of number 1 seeds that win but I'm sure its pretty high. I would have no problem if the regular season champ automatically went and not the tournament champion but the small conferences usually reward the regular season winner with home court advantage during the tournament.
I think the big dance is awesome and shouldn't be changed. I repeat, there should be no changes to the NCAA tournament but championship week and the conference tournaments could be altered. I love the games. This week has been awesome! I'm just not sure its necessary.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Bubble Teams Decide to Play Their Way Out
It must be the hot new thing. I swear this year more then any other year that I can remember bubble teams are trying to play their way out of the tournament as opposed to in. I know this year's bubble is probably bigger then any other year so maybe it's just more obvious when these teams play poorly but really this year has been out of control.
Four teams that come to mind right away are Maryland, Penn State, Florida and Arizona. A couple of weeks ago I had all four of these teams in and pretty comfortably too. Now, who knows, all four might be out. I have two of them out and two of them really close.
Let's look at all four teams more specifically.
Maryland won a huge game against North Carolina and they were riding high. They seemed to have the inside shot at the last spot from the ACC and really seemed to be firmly in the tournament. Now they have lost two in a row and most recently they lost to Virginia. Couple that loss with the Morgan State loss and Maryland looks pretty bad. All of the sudden they are 7-9 in the ACC and 5-5 in their last 10. In my opinion, the loss to Virginia sealed the deal and Maryland can't play their way in.
Penn State beat Illinois and man were they riding high. That was their second win against Illinois and they have a win over Michigan State on their resume. I said that after the second Illinois win that Penn State was in, well as long as they beat a bad Iowa team. Well guess what, they didn't beat that bad Iowa team and now they are a huge question. 10-8 in the Big Ten and the big wins that I previously mention help but Iowa is a bad loss. I think they have to win now in the Big Ten tournament at least once to feel comfortable come Sunday. Just think, all they had to do was beat Iowa.
Florida was once a lock for most experts. Then they lost 3 in a row. They weren't against bad teams but it was 3 losses in a row at the end of their season. Not a good time to go into a slump. Mississippi State was the worst loss of the three but earlier in the SEC schedule they lost to Georgia. That is a bad loss. They broke the losing streak with a win over Kentucky, which pretty much sealed the deal for Kentucky, but I don't think that helps Florida a whole bunch. They need a win or two in the SEC tournament to feel comfortable Sunday but in my opinion they are still in right now. They better not lose their first game in the tournament.
Florida had 3 losses in a row but guess what, that's not the worst losing streak of the 4 teams. Speaking of 4, Arizona recently had a 4 game losing streak. That's not good right now! Wait, this just in, they won 7 in a row to get into the conversation. This is the definition of a streaky team and right now they are going the wrong way. Well, they did just beat Stanford but really, I don't think that means a whole lot. They play Arizona State as their first game in the Pac-10 tournament and to be honest, I would not like to be in Arizona's shoes right now. That is definitely a game they could lose and if they do, Sunday will be a long day for the Wildcats.
I'm not a pessimist, I'm just a fan noticing a few bubble teams that may not think they are on the bubble. I don't know but all of these teams could've easily played their way in but they didn't.
Will the real bubble teams please step up?
Four teams that come to mind right away are Maryland, Penn State, Florida and Arizona. A couple of weeks ago I had all four of these teams in and pretty comfortably too. Now, who knows, all four might be out. I have two of them out and two of them really close.
Let's look at all four teams more specifically.
Maryland won a huge game against North Carolina and they were riding high. They seemed to have the inside shot at the last spot from the ACC and really seemed to be firmly in the tournament. Now they have lost two in a row and most recently they lost to Virginia. Couple that loss with the Morgan State loss and Maryland looks pretty bad. All of the sudden they are 7-9 in the ACC and 5-5 in their last 10. In my opinion, the loss to Virginia sealed the deal and Maryland can't play their way in.
Penn State beat Illinois and man were they riding high. That was their second win against Illinois and they have a win over Michigan State on their resume. I said that after the second Illinois win that Penn State was in, well as long as they beat a bad Iowa team. Well guess what, they didn't beat that bad Iowa team and now they are a huge question. 10-8 in the Big Ten and the big wins that I previously mention help but Iowa is a bad loss. I think they have to win now in the Big Ten tournament at least once to feel comfortable come Sunday. Just think, all they had to do was beat Iowa.
Florida was once a lock for most experts. Then they lost 3 in a row. They weren't against bad teams but it was 3 losses in a row at the end of their season. Not a good time to go into a slump. Mississippi State was the worst loss of the three but earlier in the SEC schedule they lost to Georgia. That is a bad loss. They broke the losing streak with a win over Kentucky, which pretty much sealed the deal for Kentucky, but I don't think that helps Florida a whole bunch. They need a win or two in the SEC tournament to feel comfortable Sunday but in my opinion they are still in right now. They better not lose their first game in the tournament.
Florida had 3 losses in a row but guess what, that's not the worst losing streak of the 4 teams. Speaking of 4, Arizona recently had a 4 game losing streak. That's not good right now! Wait, this just in, they won 7 in a row to get into the conversation. This is the definition of a streaky team and right now they are going the wrong way. Well, they did just beat Stanford but really, I don't think that means a whole lot. They play Arizona State as their first game in the Pac-10 tournament and to be honest, I would not like to be in Arizona's shoes right now. That is definitely a game they could lose and if they do, Sunday will be a long day for the Wildcats.
I'm not a pessimist, I'm just a fan noticing a few bubble teams that may not think they are on the bubble. I don't know but all of these teams could've easily played their way in but they didn't.
Will the real bubble teams please step up?
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