Wednesday, April 1, 2009

National League Preview

The Major League Baseball season starts on Sunday with the Phillies starting their World Series title defense against division rival Atlanta. I was going to try to do each division or each team or something but I decided that the best way for me to do the baseball preview would to just be each league with giving my predictions for the playoffs and the awards. Some of the interesting story lines are how the Phillies are going to do with all the pressure on them, whether the Cubs can repeat their regular season dominance and whether Manny can hit the way he did for the Dodgers for the whole season like he did for the last 50 games last year.

NL East:

Verb's Predicted order of finish:

1. New York Mets - 92-70
2. Philadelphia Phillies - 90-72
3. Florida Marlins - 82-80
4. Atlanta Braves -72-90
5. Washington Nationals - 69-93

I think the Mets would have won the division each of the last two years if they had at least a decent closer in the bullpen. I know Billy Wagner came in with a lot of expectations but K-Rod is different. The guy can just flat out pitch and blow guys away. 63 saves last year, remember? I'm pretty sure that's a solid guy at the back end. Don't forget they added JJ Putz as a setup guy. He may be as huge as K-Rod. The offense is still great.

The Phillies will obviously still be a very good team but I think it will come down to the last week of the season again but I get a gut feeling that the Phillies will be the ones who choke this time. The offense is really good and they will score a lot of runs but I just can't see the pitching staff holding up the way it did last year. They just named Chan Ho Park the 5th starter. Doesn't that say enough?

The Marlins are a team on the rise and I suspect they will be right around .500 all season. Anything better will be a huge surprise. Hanley Ramirez put on 25 muscle pounds and has now been moved to the 3rd spot in the lineup. He has the talent to be the NL MVP.

Atlanta could be getting better but I don't think adding Derrick Lowe and Javier Vasquez will make that much of a different. The bullpen is a big question and I really don't think the offense is good enough to carry this team.

Washington added Adam Dunn and that's about it. Their is some buzz around some young pitchers they are adding to the rotation but really without some more pop in the lineup this team will struggle to win. I think Ryan Zimmerman is going to have a break out year but that doesn't mean this team gets out of the dump of the division.

NL Central:


Verb's Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Chicago Cubs - 99-61
2. St. Louis Cardinals -88-64
3. Cincinnati Reds - 83-79
4. Houston Astros -81-81
5. Milwaukee Brewers - 76-86
6. Pittsburgh Pirates - 61-101

This may be the deepest division in baseball. I think that the Cubs are the definitive favorite then the next 4 could all finish second with the Pirates still being very very bad. I know I predicted there to be a 12 game difference between the Cards and the Brewers but it would not surprise me if those two records switch.

The Cubs are the best team in the National League on paper. They have the lineup, the rotation depth and the bullpen to be a great team. The recently named Kevin Gregg the closer which may have also sured up the setup spot because Carlos Marmol was excellent in that spot last year. I really don't think this team will have a problem winning this division.

The next 4 are all really close. Albert Pujols is probably the best hitter in baseball and one of the best ever. The Astros still have some great hitters but they are getting up there in age and really Oswalt is the only really good pitcher on the entire staff. It wouldn't surprise me if his name is a name you hear around the trade deadline. The Reds are good and they are young. They have some solid young pitchers with the lineup to stay competitive. The Brewers have the Prince still but their story is who they lost. C.C. Sabathia went to some team in the AL and Ben Sheets is now gone too. Yovani Gallardo is the ace of the staff and that makes me nervous if I am a Brewers fan. Either way, this is going be an awesome race for second, but that's the problem, it's for second.

Oh and the Pirates. Ummmmmm...they have a nice ballpark.

NL West:

Verb's Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers - 91-61
2. Arizona Diamondbacks - 85-77
3. San Francisco Giants - 83-79
4. Colorado Rockies - 79-83
5. San Diego Padres -77-85

This division is so up and down and every year you never know what is going to happen. If I remember correctly, last year I picked the Padres to win the division and I think they finished last. This year I am picking them last so don't be surprised if they win the thing. I obviously think that other then the Dodgers this division will be very even. I think my biggest surprise pick is the Giants to be an above .500 team.

The Dodgers have Manny and he could definitely win MVP. I still think he is one of the top 3 hitters in the league. The starting pitching will be the biggest question as they are going to have to rely on young pitchers like Clayton Kershaw much more then they had in the past. The bullpen will be solid even with first year closer Jonathan Broxton as the anchor. The biggest difference will be the offense and the Dodgers have such a huge advantage in this division.

The Diamondbacks are an X-factor in this division in my opinion. Stephen Drew is going to be great as is Justin Upton. But how soon? If it's this year this team could give the Dodgers a run for the division. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren could be the top 1-2 punch in the majors. The could both be 20 game winners which would go a long way towards a division championship.

The Giants, Rockies and Padres could surprise but also could be huge let downs. Randy Johnson is now pitching in San Fran and could be a stud for a dud. The Rockies can hit with anyone but what if they can't pitch. The usually can't and I would beat on more the same this year. The Padres have Peavy at the top but not much after that and have a new closer in Heath Bell. I don't believe they have the offense to carry a bad pitching staff. Those are way too many questions for me to feel confident about any of these teams.

Playoff Predictions:

Cubs over Phillies
Mets over Dodgers

Cubs over Mets

Postseason Awards:

MVP: Albert Pujols
Cy Young: Brandon Webb
Rookie of the Year: Jordan Zimmerman
Manager of the Year: Joe Torre

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